Trading Idea for Week of 16 Feb 09

A Look At the Big Picture - CRB: The CRB (commodity Research Bureau) chart tracks price movement of key commodities and are particularly sensitive to factors affecting current and future economic forces and conditions. The CRB chart has broken its 216 support level last week. I believe that market has factored in Obama's stimulus package, Friday's bearish move on the CRB was perhaps an early indication of more downside to come in the coming 1-2 weeks, although there could be a temporary rebound in the next few days. Overall, we have not reached the bottom of the down-cycle that started in Jan.


STI: STI has been fluctuating around 1700 last week. 1675 will be a key support level to watch. Market could get a temporary reprieve from the bearish sentiments early week. The tightening Bollinger band suggests that a significant move is impending. Will it be up or down? This will depend on the world's reaction to the stimulus package. While market has largely factored in the stimulus package, major earnings news in the next 2 weeks could perhaps provide a clearer direction on the STI.

My Stock Pick from Indicators Watch:
LONG on Sembcorp

Disclaimer: My assessment of STI is for fun reading only. It is not an inducement to buy or sell nor an investment advice. By reading this blog, you have agreed that I shall not be responsible for any profits or losses based on the information provided.

Trading Idea for Week of 9 Feb 09

A Look At the Big Picture - DJIA: The DJIA is recovering. The rising volume and white candlestick over the past few days will provide sufficient momentum for the DJIA to sustain this uptrend. This is further substantiated with the narrowing of +ve and -ve DIs, and down trending ADX to suggest the weakening of the downtrend. If the market reacts positively to Obama's stimulus package next week, DJIA is likely to break 50MA resistance at 8460. The 8000 support will provide the last line of defence. If news are ugly next week, a break below the 8000 support could see the Dow testing the Nov low.



STI: STI is directionless with investors and big players waiting at the sideline. Everybody is waiting for "big brother" Dow to show us the way. STI is likely to trade in a very narrow range, just like last week, if Dow is not able to convince the market that the worst is over. Traders will be trading at both the support and resistance levels to minimise losses. With a positive DJIA indication, STI is biased towards the upside. STI is currently like a loaded spring, everybody is standing at the sideline, waiting for good news to pounce at the market. The upmove will be more significant than the down move.


My Stock Pick from Indicators Watch:
LONG on F&N, People's Food, Raffles Education
SHORT on Parkway Life Reit,
My Watchlist:
SHORT on Wilmar, Noble Group, SPC - heavily overbought, look out for MacD trigger.

Disclaimer: My assessment of STI is for fun reading only. It is not an inducement to buy or sell nor an investment advice. By reading this blog, you have agreed that I shall not be responsible for any profits or losses based on the information provided.