Trading Ideas for Week of 27 Jul 09

A Look At the Big Picture - DJIA: The DJIA has broken the 9000 resistance! The key question is whether the market is able to hold the 9000 support level, or could this be a "bull trap"? Indicators on the weekly chart suggest that there are some more room for DJIA to run in the coming few weeks. Looking back in the last quarter, the DJIA charged ahead when the earnings reporting started amidst the theme of "less bad is good". It then consolidated for over a month with investors (or speculators) saying that "less bad is not good" anymore. Concrete earnings need to be demonstrated for the market to move ahead. And yes, the quarter has delivered +ve "better than expectations" earnings, propellng the DJIA past the Jun's high. Same pattern of market movement, although with different theme. If this similarity holds true, we will be expecting another 2-3 weeks of bull run before the next ccrrection comes along, after most of the earnings are reported. The reason for the correction - +ve earnings is not good enough as this is generated mainly from cost cutting measures, we need to see +ve revenue too! In the coming week, we could see the DJIA testing the newly established 9000 level. If this support level is breached, the DJIA should be able to hold 8870.



STI: The STI has propelled ahead, with many of the index stock breaking its Jun highs. This is yet another bull run led by the property sector. Next in focus will be the oil&gas, commodity and banking sector. We've seen some volume expansion in some of the commodity and oil&gas stock counters over the last few trading days. If the market remains bullish in the next few days, we could see more highs broken from the stocks in these sectore. The rapid advance over the last week has placed the indicators in the overbought region, be ready to expect some pullbacks. Strong support level is expected at 2400-2450 level; on the upside, the STI could test 2624 in the next few days.

My Stock Pick from Indicators Watch:
LONG : CAPITAL LAND, OLAM, SINGPOST


Disclaimer: My assessment of STI is for fun reading only. It is not an inducement to buy or sell nor an investment advice. By reading this blog, you have agreed that I shall not be responsible for any profits or losses based on the information provided.

Trading Ideas for Week of 29 Jun 09

A Look At the Big Picture - DJIA: The DJIA has consolidated over the last 2 weeks and established a support at 8250. Indicators are turning positive - MacD has turned green over the last 2 sessions, indicating positive sentiment returning; the oversold stochastic is poised to recover and the recent low did not break the previous low. 8250 appeared to be a strong support. However, there are still some dark clouds to watch. We're likely to see the DJIA testing the 200MA and 20MA resistance in the next few days. A failed test of 20MA could result in more downsides over the next few weeks. While a break out of 20MA will provide more positive outlook for DJIA to break the 9000 mark.


STI: STI has formed another higher low. This is a positive sign as the last 2 weeks of consolidation will give it enough momentum to break the 2400 resistance. Indicators are also showing bullish signs. Key action to watch in the next few days will be the 20MA resistance. A failure to break this line will result in more downside.

My Stock Pick from Indicators Watch:
LONG : UIC, SIA Engineering


Disclaimer: My assessment of STI is for fun reading only. It is not an inducement to buy or sell nor an investment advice. By reading this blog, you have agreed that I shall not be responsible for any profits or losses based on the information provided.

Trading Ideas for Week of 15 Jun 09

A Look At the Big Picture - DJIA: The DJIA moved in a tight range amidst the growing voices of the end to a bear rally over the last 1 week. Indicators showed that the market is in an overbought position. Although the +DI is in the bullish zone, its convergence towards the -DI indicates a waning of strength in the bull. The DJIA is in a cross-road, yet again. A break above the 9000 would provide investors with another signpost for more upside to come in the coming weeks. The support for DJIA is in the 8600 region, which is also the 20MA support level. A break below this level will post the initial warning signs of a possible change in trend and mood. I'm cautiously bullish of the market. Key events that could rock the markets: Reaction to the G8 meeting, Iran presidential election and N. Korea's reaction to the sanctions.



STI: Many black candles in the STI over the last 2 weeks. The STI is in a consolidation phase, at the same time, it is also attempting to test the 2400 resistance level. The good thing to cheer is that the STI is trending along the 5 EMA support line. However, its convergence towards the 20MA line indicates a slowing down of the bull trend. Over the next 1 week, the STI could see further consolidation. A break above 2400 with high volume will be a good signpost for more upside. While the breakdown of the 20MA support level will potentially points to more bearish sentiments.

My Stock Pick from Indicators Watch:


Disclaimer: My assessment of STI is for fun reading only. It is not an inducement to buy or sell nor an investment advice. By reading this blog, you have agreed that I shall not be responsible for any profits or losses based on the information provided.

Trading Idea for Week of 25 May 09

A Look At the Big Picture - DJIA: Is this the end of the DJIA rally? Indicators has shown signs of resistance over the last 1 week. The DJIA was unable to break the long term resistance trendline and has formed a descending triangle, hanging precariously to the 8205 support level. A break below the support line could see DJIA retracing to 7900 i.e. 200MA support line. A retracement towards 7900 is perhaps a healthy sign, I think...and a good opportunity to collect some good stocks. There will be a series of release of economic figures next week, with anaylst predicting them to be "less bad" compared to the previous quarter. If this is indeed the case, the DJIA is likely to hold above 8200.




STI: The STI has shown more rsilient indicators and possibly more legs to run! Given the strong volume and a break above the long term resistance trendline, it is likely to continue its advance. The next few days could be choppy though, as the overbought indicators could suggest some consolidation taking place. However, it is unlikely to have significant downward move to trigger panic selling. Any dips are potenial opportunity to catch up on the previous weeks' lose opportunities. On the downside, the STI will see strong support at 2100.

My Stock Pick from Indicators Watch:
LONG: COSCO Corp, Yellow Pages, Rotary, Ezion Holdings


Disclaimer: My assessment of STI is for fun reading only. It is not an inducement to buy or sell nor an investment advice. By reading this blog, you have agreed that I shall not be responsible for any profits or losses based on the information provided.

Trading Ideas for Week of 11 May 09

A Look At the Big Picture - DJIA: The DJIA has consolidated around the 8200-8400 level over the last 2 weeks and is looked set to charge ahead. The +ve DIs and rising ADX points towards a continuing uptrend. However, stochastic is in the overbought region, suggesting some consolidation may take place in the days ahead. Given the strong uptrend, the pullback may not be severe. On the downside, it could perhaps retest the 8200-8400 levels to establish this as a firm support level. On the up side, DJIA could be flirting with the thrice tested 9000 levels. Breaking beyond 9000 would be tenuous in the short term, the market would require strong economic indicators to support it. I'll be watching out for the volume on the black candle stick days. If volume is heavy, it will indicate that the bulls may take a turn for the bears. On the contrary, a light volume during black candlestick days, wuld further reaffirm that the uptrend is still intact. Prices tend to overshoot in a bull rally and undershoot in a bear rally. The key question now is has the price overhoot? Or is it recovering from the undershoot bear in March?




STI: STI has charged furiously over the last 1 week, it's performance far surpassed the other markets around the world. It has broken the twice tested resistance at 1950 and crack through the 200MA resistance. The +DI and rising ADX suggest that an uptrend is in place. However, there are indicators that the bull is tired. The shooting star candlestick on Fri close, the red histogram MacD and overbought stochastics points towards a possible consolidation in the days ahead. The 200MA support line would serve as a strong support. This would attract more investors to buy during the dips. As the blue chips has been rising like a runaway gun, there is likely to have significant interest in the 2nd-tier penny stocks (especially oil&gas sector) as those who has missed the action would not want to be left behind. As most of the stocks has run up too fast, there are opportunities to short some of the counters. A good profit target would be either the 14EMA or 20MA support line.

My Stock Pick from Indicators Watch:
SHORT: SIA, MCL Land, Capital Land, Golden Agri


Disclaimer: My assessment of STI is for fun reading only. It is not an inducement to buy or sell nor an investment advice. By reading this blog, you have agreed that I shall not be responsible for any profits or losses based on the information provided.

Trading Ideas for Week of 20 Apr 09

A Look At the Big Picture - DJIA: Overbought indicators seems to suggest that the bull is going to take a break, hitting trendline resistance. However, the uptrend seems to be intact (+ve DI). The bearish divergence 2 weeks ago seemed to have dissipated with volume coming in over the last 1 week. DJIA will probably test the 20MA support (7870) this week. If it is able to hold the support line, the bull will continue to charge again. If DJIA is able to break above Friday's close, it will be a positive indication of a continuing uptrend. Otherwise, watch out for 20MA support. If this breaks down, we will perhaps see a retracment to 7500 level.



STI: STI also needs a break. Indicators shows that STI is highly overbought. However, a clear uptrend (+DI and rising ADX) is developing. This is perhaps fuelled by the Shanghai and Hong Kong market. But there are strong headwinds
ahead. The resistance at 1950 seems to be a strong one. Beyond 1950, there is a 60 points gap as well as the 200MA resistance that needs to be broken. A retracement towards the 20MA support line (1830) will be a healthy sign to give the STI the energy to charge ahead. The uptrend is still intact as long as the 20MA support hold. Otherwise, we'll expect the correction to test 1700 level.

My Stock Pick from Indicators Watch:
Nil from Indicator watch.

Disclaimer: My assessment of STI is for fun reading only. It is not an inducement to buy or sell nor an investment advice. By reading this blog, you have agreed that I shall not be responsible for any profits or losses based on the information provided.

Trading Idea for Week of 6 Apr 09

A Look At the Big Picture - DJIA: The Dow has shown signs of recovery. The million dollar question is, "Is it time to buy?". I'm cautiously optimistic. Shortist beware... At best, it will continue recovery; at worst, it will move sideway for another few weeks in search of the next trend direction. We are at a key crossroad, the chart has formed a classical ascending triangle. However, does the market have enough strength to break the resistance line? My guess is perhaps yes, but not this week as the market has been grossly overbought. The volume has been declining as the DJIA rises. This price/volume bearish divergence is a sign of imminent trend change. Hence, some consolidation is expected in order for the bull to gain strength before it charges again. The catalytic news would be the quarterly earnings results of the big banks. Given the implementation of the mark to market accounting rules, the banks could report positive earnings for the quarter. Could this be the catalyst? Maybe yes, maybe no. It depends on how investor perceive the effects of this new rules.


STI: The outlook for STI is more positive than the DJIA. The rise in the ST Index has been supported with good volume. This is a sign of strength of the market. The market could garner enough strength to break above the ascending triangle. I guess many investors at the sideline over the past few weeks were afraid that they may be left behind, and started to buy into the market. However, beware. Whether the trend is sustainable would depend on the performance of the DJIA. Many of the local counters are grossly overbought. A better strategy is to wait for a pull back and buy at key support lines. In an uptrend, the Index will likely be supported by the 20MA line, similarly for the various stock counters. Patience is the name of the game.

My Stock Pick from Indicators Watch:
Nil from Indicator watch.

Disclaimer: My assessment of STI is for fun reading only. It is not an inducement to buy or sell nor an investment advice. By reading this blog, you have agreed that I shall not be responsible for any profits or losses based on the information provided.

Trading Idea for Wek of 23 Mar 09

A Look At the Big Picture - DJIA: The Dow has managed to keep its gains and maintained above the 20MA support line. The rebound has been strong, briefly testing Fibonacci 38% resistance. The last 2 trading days' negative closing is at it stands now, a healthy consolidation for the overbought situation in the first half of last week. Is this the bottom yet? Confidence is building up, and anticpations are high. Many that had stayed at the sidelines are beginning to feel that they have lost out on the rebound, and started moving into the market. The $300Bn "quantitative easing" by the US administration has a few impacts. First, it makes the borrowing cost cheaper and second the mortgage rate will be much lower to encourage the housing markets. With a flood of liquidity in the market, the money needs to be channelled somewhere. With the confidence builing up, risk appetite of investors will increase. This is evident from the high volume traded in the stock markets around the world. I'll be watching for chart formation of an ascending triangle in the next 1-2 weeks. The first half of next week will see some more consolidation, before the bull regain its breath to charge again. However, if the DJIA is unable to hold its 20MA line, we could be really in a "dead cat bounce" scenario. Run for your money!




STI: STI had a great showing. It is more resilient than the Dow. I'm inclined to believe that the worst is behind us. Look at the banking stocks, they have been able to hold their gains pretty well. However, nothing is for sure. Indicators are entering into overbought region soon. In the next 1 week, we'll probably see STI entering into a consolidation phase. Will it tank on Monday? If yes, this could be signs of more down trend. If it survives, this will provide additional indications and confidence that the STI is in the recovery phase. Look at Shanghai, it has been on a path to recovery since Nov, an indication that their stimulus package has worked. Let's hope US' stimulus package will do likewise.

My Stock Pick from Indicators Watch:
Nil from Indicator watch. But I'll be pondering over the local banking stocks.

Disclaimer: My assessment of STI is for fun reading only. It is not an inducement to buy or sell nor an investment advice. By reading this blog, you have agreed that I shall not be responsible for any profits or losses based on the information provided.

Trading Idea for Week of 15 Mar 09

A Look At the Big Picture - DJIA: The Dow has made an impressive recovery over the last few trading days. But we are not out of the woods yet. Could this be a dead cat bounce? Indicators shows signs of recovery. However, we still cannot rule out the possibility of a dead cat bounce. To be out of the woods, we need to see the +DI rising above the -DI, with Dow maintaining its 20MA support. Fundamentally, we have not seen any concrete actions taking place over the last few days except for "rhetorics" of the big banks turning in positive numbers in the last 2 months. This has boosted investors' confidence temporarily...but we need to see the financial statements to be convinced! Otherwise, Dow will be plummeted again.


STI: STI had a great showing. Indicators are also showing signs of recovery. However, we are still not out of the woods yet. We need to see the STI holding the 20MA support in order to be more positive of the up trend. If this fails, we could be testing 1500 line agian. Let's hope that the US banking stocks continue to rise, with this, our local banking stock will be able to follow suit. We need these banking stocks to rise in order to see the STI moving up.




My Stock Pick from Indicators Watch:
Nil...

Disclaimer: My assessment of STI is for fun reading only. It is not an inducement to buy or sell nor an investment advice. By reading this blog, you have agreed that I shall not be responsible for any profits or losses based on the information provided.

Trading Idea for Week of 16 Feb 09

A Look At the Big Picture - CRB: The CRB (commodity Research Bureau) chart tracks price movement of key commodities and are particularly sensitive to factors affecting current and future economic forces and conditions. The CRB chart has broken its 216 support level last week. I believe that market has factored in Obama's stimulus package, Friday's bearish move on the CRB was perhaps an early indication of more downside to come in the coming 1-2 weeks, although there could be a temporary rebound in the next few days. Overall, we have not reached the bottom of the down-cycle that started in Jan.


STI: STI has been fluctuating around 1700 last week. 1675 will be a key support level to watch. Market could get a temporary reprieve from the bearish sentiments early week. The tightening Bollinger band suggests that a significant move is impending. Will it be up or down? This will depend on the world's reaction to the stimulus package. While market has largely factored in the stimulus package, major earnings news in the next 2 weeks could perhaps provide a clearer direction on the STI.

My Stock Pick from Indicators Watch:
LONG on Sembcorp

Disclaimer: My assessment of STI is for fun reading only. It is not an inducement to buy or sell nor an investment advice. By reading this blog, you have agreed that I shall not be responsible for any profits or losses based on the information provided.

Trading Idea for Week of 9 Feb 09

A Look At the Big Picture - DJIA: The DJIA is recovering. The rising volume and white candlestick over the past few days will provide sufficient momentum for the DJIA to sustain this uptrend. This is further substantiated with the narrowing of +ve and -ve DIs, and down trending ADX to suggest the weakening of the downtrend. If the market reacts positively to Obama's stimulus package next week, DJIA is likely to break 50MA resistance at 8460. The 8000 support will provide the last line of defence. If news are ugly next week, a break below the 8000 support could see the Dow testing the Nov low.



STI: STI is directionless with investors and big players waiting at the sideline. Everybody is waiting for "big brother" Dow to show us the way. STI is likely to trade in a very narrow range, just like last week, if Dow is not able to convince the market that the worst is over. Traders will be trading at both the support and resistance levels to minimise losses. With a positive DJIA indication, STI is biased towards the upside. STI is currently like a loaded spring, everybody is standing at the sideline, waiting for good news to pounce at the market. The upmove will be more significant than the down move.


My Stock Pick from Indicators Watch:
LONG on F&N, People's Food, Raffles Education
SHORT on Parkway Life Reit,
My Watchlist:
SHORT on Wilmar, Noble Group, SPC - heavily overbought, look out for MacD trigger.

Disclaimer: My assessment of STI is for fun reading only. It is not an inducement to buy or sell nor an investment advice. By reading this blog, you have agreed that I shall not be responsible for any profits or losses based on the information provided.

Trading Idea forWeek of 28 Jan 09

STI: STI has broken 1716 support level. Obama's inauguration and the budget day did not provide the much needed boost to the market. However, DJIA has been rather resilient, amidst all the negative news. From the technical observations, STI is oversold and searching for a bottom/trend reversal. Will this be a temporary pause to the bear trend or a reversal of trend? A breakout above the 20MA resistance will provide good prospects of a trend reversal. While a failed breakout will enbolden shortist to ride the bear trend. Tonight's dow performance will be a very key deciding factor as it will provide the leads to how much the Hang Seng Index need to catchup, after a few days break for the Lunar New Year.

My Stock Pick from Indicators Watch:
LONG on UOB, SIA, SGX, Sembcorp, Keppel Corp

Disclaimer: My assessment of STI is for fun reading only. It is not an inducement to buy or sell nor an investment advice. By reading this blog, you have agreed that I shall not be responsible for any profits or losses based on the information provided.

Trading Idea for Week of 19 Jan 09

A Look At the Big Picture - DJIA: The DJIA typically leads the market sentiments around the world. After a bout of negative news, bearish sentiments finally come to an end. Confidence is building up in Obama's team to reverse the economic crisis. Bullish reversal indicators are spotted om the DJIA chart. The long hammer supported with high volume on Thurs showed a resilient test of the 8196 support level. Fri's high volume and white candle close of 8281 provides further confirmation of bullish reversal. In the next few trading days, DJIA will be attempting to break the 20 and 50MA resistance at about 8600. Amidst all the gloomy economic figures and negative earning reporting, a break above 9000 (which will also be the 100MA resistance) will provide a very strong indication of investors' confidence and see the start of a bull rally. However, if the test at 20/50MA fails, the DJIA will likely go into a bear trend to test last Thurs' support level. We are in a critical crossroad in the next 2 weeks. Will the DJIA break the resistance? I'm not very hopeful at the moment.



STI: 1716 is a key support level to watch. The bear is taking a breather with a white candle closing on Fri. In the coming week, STI will take cue from DJIA and likely to be running on the "Obama" and "Singapore Budget 2009" steriods. Why do I say the market is on "Steriods"? Well, it is likely to be short-lived, unless the DJIA is able to break the 9000 resistance. The quarterly and annual earning reporting season is here. Figures will be dismal. However, investors are likely to brush aside those negative news and cheer to Obama and our Budget as "Good news" will prevail in these 2 events. After the euphoria is over, many would come to their senses and realise that the market has been overpriced. This is the next big drop that I'm waiting for. Meanwhile, I'll be riding on the steroids to look for LONG opportunities in some of the Blue chip counters. However, I'll square off my positions by end of the week as the long CNY holiday poses too much uncertainty. The next few trading sessions will likely see STI testing 1800.

My Stock Pick from Indicators Watch:
LONG on UOB, SIA, SGX, Sembcorp, Beauty China & Raffles Education

Disclaimer: My assessment of STI is for fun reading only. It is not an inducement to buy or sell nor an investment advice. By reading this blog, you have agreed that I shall not be responsible for any profits or losses based on the information provided.

Trading Ideas for Week of 12 Jan 09

STI: SII hit resistance at 1950 last Monday, this was confirmed Tues' failed attempt to break the resitance level. This resistance appears to be a very strong one as very high volume has been observed. The subsequent retracement saw STI broke its 1820 support level. Looking at the big picture, the STI is nearing its trend support line, this is not likely to hold with the poor Dow's showing in the last few trading days and bearish indicators. The Obama effects is losing steam...It will next test support at 1732. If the STI rebounds, it is likely to hit resistance at 1860.

Trading Strategy: I'll be looking at SHORT positions for the week. Many of the blue chips counters have also broken its uptrending support levels and is turning into bearish territory.

Trading Idea for 8 Jan 09

STI: STI has hit resistance at 1842 and is doing a retracement towards the 1820 support level. It has formed a higher hig, the next watch item is to see if it rebound from support level at 1820 thereabout to form a higher low. This is likely to take place today or tomorrow. I'll be watching for candlestick reversal patterns for confirmation. Watch out for white candles.

My Stock pick: Many of the blue chips counters have also hit resistance and retracing towards suppport level I'll be looking out for SGX to rebound from its support.

Trading Idea for the Day - 6 Jan 09

STI: There was good showing of volume, which was a sign of investors coming into the market. The STI achieved its near term target and broke the resistance at 1907. Key indicators shows signs of bullishness. However, the STI has hit the upper bollinger band, possible retracement could be encountered in the next few days. I'll be watching to see if support at 1907 is tenable.

I'll not long on any counters as many of this has hit the upper bollinger band. Possible SHORT is DBS. Indicators showing that it is entering into overbought region. Recommended entry at $9.80 - $10.00

Disclaimer: My assessment of STI is for fun reading only. It is not an inducement to buy or sell nor an investment advice. By reading this blog, you have agreed that I shall not be responsible for any profits or losses based on the information provided.

Trading Ideas for Week of 5 Jan 09

STI: STI has been uptrending with higher-high and higher low since 24 Nov 08. Indicators show signs of bullishness, possibly with a mini rally towards 1907 in the next 1 - 2 weeks. However, there will be speed bumps ahead. Possible near term corrections could be encountered at 1860 (which is the upper bollinger band), but unlikely to post a strong resistance if the current trend in the world market persists. Quarterly earnings results are around the corner. Figures are likely to disappoint. Will this put a damper to the bullishness?


My Stock Pick:
LONG on SIA Engineering & Sino-Environment


SIA Eng broke 20MA resistance at $2.05 on Fri. Volume may not be fantastic, however, key indicators point towards an uptrend.
Entry Price: $2.05-2.08 Profit Target: $2.18; Cut Loss: $2.00








Sino-Env broke 20MA at $0.62 on Fri with reasonably high volume. Kdy indicators show uptrend is intact.
Entry Price: $0.63 Profit Target: $0.735; Cut Loss: $0.57







WATCHLIST:
LONGS:
Jardine C&C - Stochatic in oversold region & bullish crossover, ADX turning +ve, Green MacD histogram
Long Trigger: Price breaks 20MA & 50MA resistance at $9.93

SHORTS:
UOL - Stochastic overbought, hit upper bollinger band.
Short Trigger: Stochastic/MacD bearish crossover; Candlestick bearish reversal

STARHUB - Stochastic advancing to overbought region, ADX in -ve territory, Red MacD histogram
Short Trigger: Stochastic/MacD bearish crossover

Disclaimer: My assessment of STI is for fun reading only. It is not an inducement to buy or sell nor an investment advice. By reading this blog, you have agreed that I shall not be responsible for any profits or losses based on the information provided.